David Sylvain

Posts Tagged 'maple boutique'

Stock Market Analysis: 01/30/17

By using analytical methods when researching trendy boutique s, we can attempt to find stocks trading for a discount to their true value, which therefore will be in a great position to capture market-beating returns in the future. For some companies, like cruise liners, the answers will be depressing, because the sights of large cruise ships stranded on the high seas, and acting as Petri dishes for spreading diseases will linger, but other companies will find themselves in a stronger position in the post-viral economy, partly because of their product offerings but also because of their financial strengths. Even with large companies that may be recipients of bail outs, because they are too big to fail, your equity may go to zero, if that is one of the conditions of the bailout (as was the case in the 2009 GM bailout). For companies close to the center of the viral storm (travel-related companies, people-intensive businesses and producers of discretionary products), the revenue decline this year will be large and they will almost certainly lose money.

 

Revenue Change & Operating Margin in 2020: These are the inputs that will reflect the effects of the global economic shut down on your company’s revenues and operating margin in the next 12 months. September has been a turbulent month for stocks, with declines in tech shares pulling down major indexes. While some of the largest may get help from governments to make it through this crisis, their smaller and lower-profile peers may have to shut down or let themselves be acquired. All in all, while it is true that some of the companies that are the recipients of government bailouts have bought back stock in past years, there is little evidence for the proposition that without the buybacks, they would not need the bailouts. It is true that there are a handful of companies, like Zoom, Slack and Instacart, to name just three, that may actually benefit from the global quarantine, but they are the exceptions. If you your goal is unrealistic so it may reason for the big loss.

 

Historical data may be recent, but it is already dated: For most companies globally, the most recent financial statements are for 2019, and in calendar time, these financials are only a few weeks old. As the global economy shuts down, though, the one thing we know with certainty is that the revenues and earnings numbers reported in those recent financial statements are almost useless, a reflection of a different economic setting. This year will deliver bad news: There is almost no doubt that 2020 will be a bad year for all companies, with the key questions being how much of a drop in revenues companies will see this year, and how this will translate into earnings shocks. While many investors have put their valuation tools away, using the argument that there is too much uncertainty now to even try, I will argue that this is exactly the time to go back to basics and try valuing companies, uncertainty notwithstanding. The middle ground on risk is to accept that it is part and parcel of investing, to try to gauge how exposed you are to it and to make sure that your expected return is high enough to compensate you for taking that risk.